Who is this research for? Supply chain executives, transportation and logistics leaders, freight market analysts, emergency management professionals, and disaster response planners.
Top Answer
Research suggests that major hurricane landfalls do not consistently cause large disruptions in long-haul truckload spot markets at the state level. While some localized increases in freight prices and inbound truck volumes occur, the broader effect appears to be increased market volatility and uncertainty across transportation networks rather than widespread breakdowns in freight capacity.
Executive Summary
This research by Dr. Travis Kulpa (Grand Valley State University, 2025 Walton Ph.D. graduate), Dr. Andrew Balthrop (University of Tennessee), Dr. Jason W. Miller (Michigan State University), and Drs. Rodney Thomas and Matthew Waller (Department of Supply Chain Management, Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas) examines how major hurricane landfalls affect the U.S. long-haul dry van truckload spot market.
Using freight marketplace data and a synthetic control methodology, the researchers analyzed the effects of five major hurricanes (Harvey, Irma, Florence, Michael, and Laura) on inbound and outbound freight prices and truck volumes. The study focused on whether hurricanes altered the flow of freight into and out of affected states and whether spot market pricing reflected meaningful supply chain disruption.
The findings suggest that major hurricanes generally did not produce statistically significant changes in trucking spot prices or freight volumes compared to carefully constructed control markets. While some hurricanes generated temporary increases in inbound freight activity or localized pricing effects, the broader pattern indicates that trucking networks may be more resilient than commonly assumed. The research also suggests that hurricanes can increase nationwide freight market volatility, creating uncertainty and pricing variation even when direct disruptions remain relatively limited.
Expert Insights: What should supply chain leaders understand about hurricane-related freight disruptions?
Why do major hurricanes appear to have less impact on freight markets than industry observers might expect?
Dr. Travis Kulpa explains: “The highly competitive nature of the trucking industry, combined with the ability to move capacity to where it is needed quickly, provides significant flexibility to shippers even when disruptions occur. While destructive hurricanes can cause significant local increases in inbound rates, the overall network is able to adjust to very large shocks.”
Dr. Matt Waller adds: “The overall network appears able to absorb even very large shocks without significant disruption to aggregate spot outcomes.”
→ Takeaway: Flexible trucking networks and the industry's ability to rapidly reposition capacity may help absorb even major hurricane disruptions without widespread freight market impacts.
How should supply chain leaders think about resilience when transportation networks face large-scale disruptions?
Dr. Travis Kulpa notes: “An increase spot prices are not a significant planning consideration when responding to hurricane disasters. The focus should be more on strategically coordinating deliveries and ensuring safety for all those involved in responding to and affected by the hurricane.”
Dr. Matt Waller explains: “The real friction after a landfall is repositioning equipment, deadheading into a damaged region, and the reduced probability of securing an outbound load because manufacturing output drops.”
→ Takeaway: During hurricane response, operational coordination and safety may matter more than concerns about significant freight price increases.
What lessons can emergency management organizations take from the trucking industry's response to major hurricanes?
Dr. Travis Kulpa adds: “While we don’t observe statistically significant increases in inbound spot trucking freight activity for every hurricane, we do observe some “model-free evidence” that suggests a spike in inbound freight activity in the month of a hurricane and then a sharp reversal back to the average. As other studies have documented, emergency relief supplies can overwhelm the disaster area – we need to consider how to prioritize, accurately estimate, and properly time deliveries of disaster relief supplies.”
→ Takeaway: Effective disaster response depends not only on moving supplies quickly, but also on prioritizing and timing deliveries to avoid overwhelming affected regions.
How can carriers and shippers better prepare for hurricane-related uncertainty without overreacting to potential disruptions?
Dr. Travis Kulpa notes: “We do not find a major difference between hauling into a hurricane-affected state and a comparable spot market price. While this bodes well for shippers, spot market carriers need to assess carefully if hauling loads into a disaster area is worth the extra cost and risk.”
→ Takeaway: Shippers may benefit from stable freight market conditions after hurricanes, while carriers should carefully weigh the operational risks and costs of serving disaster-affected areas.
What is the impact of this research for supply chain leaders as they plan ahead for future severe weather events?
Dr. Travis Kulpa explains: “If a hurricane landfall disrupts supply chains, leaders can consider the spot market for additional capacity without necessarily paying a significant premium. If operations are located outside of the hurricane-affected state, the nationwide trucking spot market is not likely to be overwhelmed.”
→ Takeaway: The trucking spot market may provide valuable surge capacity during hurricane disruptions without necessarily creating substantial nationwide freight bottlenecks or price spikes.
Link to the Original Research
Published in Transportation Research Part E (2026)
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the researchers measure the impact of hurricanes on freight markets?
The study used a synthetic control approach, which compares (a) hurricane-affected states to (b) statistically constructed comparison markets that closely matched freight conditions in the affected state before the hurricane made landfall. This allowed the researchers to estimate the specific impact of each hurricane rather than relying on simple before-and-after comparisons.
Which hurricanes were included in the study?
The researchers examined Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Florence, Michael, and Laura—major storms that generated at least $500 million in federal disaster assistance and affected states including Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina.
Did hurricanes increase freight prices?
In some cases, yes. Certain storms were associated with temporary increases in inbound freight prices or truck volumes. However, the overall results suggest that these effects were inconsistent across storms and often smaller than expected.
What role does the truckload spot market play during disasters?
The spot market provides flexible transportation capacity that can be deployed quickly when normal freight patterns are disrupted. It often serves as a critical channel for moving relief supplies, essential goods, and emergency shipments into affected areas.
What was the study's most surprising finding?
One of the most notable findings is that major hurricanes appeared to increase freight market volatility nationwide more than they disrupted freight activity within the affected states themselves. This suggests that uncertainty and network adjustments may be more important than direct capacity shortages in understanding disaster-related transportation impacts.
