Who is this research for? Retail executives, supply chain leaders, emergency preparedness managers, and policymakers involved in disaster response planning.
Executive Summary
This research from Adriana Rossiter Hofer at the Sam M. Walton College of Business (Department of Supply Chain Management) examines how retailer-imposed purchase quantity limits shape consumer stockpiling before natural disasters. Using multiple scenario-based experiments involving essential goods such as bottled water, the study uncovers two competing behavioral mechanisms that emerge as the retailers increase the purchase limits for staple products: anchoring, which increases stockpiling, and perceived future regret, which decreases it.
Overall, the anchoring mechanism dominates—meaning higher purchase limits unintentionally encourage consumers to buy more than they need. The research also finds that social norm messages reduce stockpiling only when no limits are present, suggesting retailers should use nudges and quantity limits strategically rather than simultaneously.
Action Items for Industry
- Set purchase limits carefully: Higher limits may unintentionally increase stockpiling due to strong anchoring effects.
- Match limits to typical household needs: Limits aligned with average consumption in the specific retailer market help reduce inequitable stockpiling behavior.
- Use social norm messaging only when limits are absent: Nudges reduce stockpiling only when consumers do not see an imposed limit.
- Integrate behavioral insights into disaster planning: Combine operational decisions with psychology-based cues to avoid unintended outcomes.
- Leverage store-level consumer data: Use loyalty and sales data to implement limits that reflect your store’s specific need distribution and inventory realities.
Quote from the Researcher
“When faced with the threat of natural disasters, retailers confront the difficult task of managing demand relative to available supply to prevent consumer stockpiling and ensure equitable distribution. This study’s investigation of the behavioral mechanisms of the anchoring effect and future regret underscores the importance of store managers understanding their customer base’s shopping patterns and needs when implementing quantity limits for staple products in preparation for or response to natural disasters.”
- Adriana Rossiter Hofer
Co-Authors & Affiliations
- Pritosh Kumar — University of Wisconsin–Parkside, College of Business, Economics and Computing
- Saif Mir — University of Delaware, Alfred Lerner College of Business and Economics
Link to the Original Research
Published in Journal of Business Logistics, available here.
📩 Interested in learning more?
If you’d like additional information about this research or to connect directly with
the researchers, please email us at research@walton.uark.edu.
